5 Minutes 
The Swing Voter Project is an ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious. This initiative gives swing voters—those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election and then for Joe Biden in 2020—the opportunity to share their viewpoints through monthly online focus groups.
Each respondent group is comprised of swing voters from 10 battleground states. In October, the spotlight was on Pennsylvania and the midterm elections.
Understanding the Pennsylvania Swing Voter Group
Among our 13 respondents for October‘s virtual session, six were registered Republicans, six were registered Democrats, and one was Independent. We kept our discussion focused on elections and candidate preferences, rather than delving into specific issues. Because control of the Senate was in the hands of voters in just four states—Pennsylvania being one of them—we were especially keen to collect our group’s opinions on the state’s two Senate candidates: Democratic nominee John Fetterman and Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Fetterman vs Oz: Who do you plan to vote for in the Pennsylvania Senate race?
Surgeon and TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman were up for the Pennsylvania Senate seat this November, and the polls indicated a tight race.
Nine of the respondents said they planned to vote for Fetterman, two said they’d cast votes for Oz, and two remained undecided. They expressed that Fetterman’s stroke was not a major voting concern, nor were Oz’s attacks on Fetterman’s criminal justice record.
So what factors were driving the Pennsylvania Senate race? It wasn’t just Roe v. Wade, inflation, or Biden vs. Trump. Six of the seven respondents in one group session confirmed their concern over which party controls the U.S. Senate would be a driving factor when their votes were cast. They elaborated with the following remarks:
“I don’t want to see the Republicans in charge of the Senate, and I don’t want to see them in charge of the House, either. I’d like to see something other than the charge to kill democracy, the charge to spring forward with economic plans that support the upper 2%, if not the upper 1%.”
“There’s too much at stake; there’s too many potential human rights issues, climate change among them. I think that we can see a stronger economy in the next decade if we move away from oil quickly.”
“I just feel like the Republican candidates…[there’s] just too much drama, and I’m just over it.”
In an always-illuminating exercise, Rich Thau, President of Engagious and our moderator for these swing voter sessions, asked respondents to list some words they associated with Fetterman:
- Fraud
- Cannabis
- Raise taxes
- Tax evasion
- Intimidating
- Unpolished
- Tough guy
- Plain-spoken
- Qualified
- Tall
- Health issues
And here are some of the words and phrases they associated with Dr. Oz:
- New Jersey
- Doctor
- Reality TV
- Unqualified
- Kind of a joke
- Tragic
- Weight loss conman
- Carpetbagger
- Oprah
- Pharmaceuticals
- Celebrity
- Scam and lies
- Entertainer
- Money
Shapiro vs Mastriano: Who will you vote for in the Pennsylvania Governor’s race?
As former Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf reached his term limit, Pennsylvania voters had to decide on Nov. 8 who would take over his seat: Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro or Republican Doug Mastriano.
Eight out of our 13 respondents said they’d roll with Shapiro, while only one would vote for Mastriano. The other four were undecided as of October.
Here are the words and phrases they used to describe Shapiro:
- Able
- Standing up for victims
- A fighter
- Qualified
- Proven
- Progressive
- Long-standing
- Tom Wolf 2.0
And here’s what comes to mind when they think of Mastriano:
- Angry
- Radical
- Lunatic
- Very scary
- Outdated point of view
- Trump
- Militant
- MAGA-fascist
Our respondents expounded a bit upon their thoughts of Mastriano:
“Any politician that does commercials [wearing] army fatigues, I pretty much dismiss them. I don’t care what you did in the Middle East…trying to be some tough guy.”
“I’m a Republican and I think he’s an extremist.”
Given the stark differences between what our respondents had to say about Shapiro and Mastriano, we wanted to understand how four of these voters could remain undecided.
One respondent clarified his indecision actually revolved around whether to vote for either candidate at all.
“If it were tight, I’d [vote] for Shapiro, for sure. If it’s not tight, I don’t know. I might just…write some third-party candidate in.”
Thau pressed on with the question, “If it’s not close, why not still vote for Shapiro?”
“It’s a protest vote,” said the respondent. “I don’t want to necessarily pull a lever for…a candidate if I don’t have to.”
More of the Same Sentiments Regarding Biden and Trump
Every month we ask our respondents to share their opinions on former President Trump and the incumbent Biden. And every month we are met with virtually the same responses.
Here’s how our group feels whenever they see Biden on the screen:
Despite these pejoratives, none of the respondents said they would take Trump back over Biden in a hypothetical election. So there you have it.
Thau ended with an apt closing quip: “Whenever I hear answers like this, which is basically every month, it reminds me of a fifth-place team playing a sixth-place team, and the fans have to choose just one team to root for.”
