The Swing Voter Project Pennsylvania: April 2024

Key Takeaways

Voters in Pennsylvania are willing to give Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a chance
All but one of the focus group participants have a negative view of Trump’s statement about abortion access being left up to the states
When asked if Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks was justified, some respondents were unsure about their views of the situation

Context for Pennsylvania Swing Voters

As the United States was being formed, the Constitution was written in Philadelphia in 1787. The same year, Pennsylvania became the new country’s second state. Ever since, the state has voted in every U.S. presidential election.

Over the last 100 years, as its population has relocated to other states, Pennsylvania lost electoral votes. Still, this critical battleground state currently has 19 electoral votes. State residents chose Biden over Trump in 2020 by 1.2 percent. In 2016, Pennsylvania’s electoral votes went to Trump by only 0.7 percent.

Which Candidates Would Get Their Votes

In a five-way presidential race, the 11 Pennsylvania voters would choose these candidates:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 6
Joe Biden: 2
Donald Trump: 2
Cornel West: 1
Jill Stein: 0

Opinions on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kennedy’s presidential run is likely to play a substantial role in the outcome of the November election. More than half of the Pennsylvania voters are ready to give this candidate a chance. Here’s some of what they had to say:

“I just could not vote for Trump again. So now we’ve got Biden … Neither of them is a viable candidate. I’d almost just roll the dice with Kennedy and just see what would happen.”

“Just to give somebody new an opportunity because I’m really tired of Biden, and I’m not going to vote for Trump … Let’s come up with some new ideas, and let’s see where they go.”

“[He has] a lot of attributes of Robert and John F. Kennedy, so I feel that he would be the best choice out of the five there. When you watch him talk, it’s like he has his uncle and his father in him and you can see it … You feel confident that he’s going to do a better job than what we have in office now.”

A Biden Campaign Ad Addresses Abortion

The Pennsylvania voters were shown a TV ad from the Biden campaign that addresses abortion. Eight of the respondents thought the ad made a compelling point. They all said the ad wouldn’t change their mind about which candidates will get their votes, though.

However, five of the focus group participants said the issue of abortion will affect how they vote. They were asked to imagine being told by Biden that voting for Kennedy would be like giving a vote to Trump. Their responses to this theoretical conversation included:

“He’s probably right, especially since in our system a third-party candidate’s never won or even really even made a dent. So, if I were to throw my vote to a third party, it would be wasted, actually.”

“It might be like just throwing my vote away and then the issue is not solved like I would hope that it could be.”

Reactions to Trump’s Statement about Abortion

During the focus groups, the Pennsylvania voters heard part of a speech by Trump. He said that he supports letting states decide the issue of abortion access. Only one of the participants agreed with Trump’s statement.

Here’s some of what the rest of the group had to say:

“It doesn’t make sense to have it, in every single state, be different.”

“One person lives in one state and they can do this and another person lives in another state and they can’t do that? Yeah, I just don’t think it’s fair.”

“He ends with it’s up to the individual states, it’s up to you as an individual person to make a decision that’s best for you. That’s what existed under Roe v Wade. It was legal. All we’ve done is create, in my opinion, more animosity between states and between neighbors to continue this constant fight about an issue that we say, from a political standpoint, should be up to individuals to decide.”

“It’s going to cost us more money. It’s going to cause us more stress. It’s like it’s just not convenient in the end.”

Views on the Israel-Hamas War

It’s been six months since the Israel-Hamas war began in Gaza. Only one of the Pennsylvania voters is satisfied with how President Biden has managed the crisis. Three of the respondents think Trump would have done a better job.

The focus group participants were asked if they think that Israel’s response to the Hamas attack is justified. One respondent said yes. Seven out of the remaining 10 Pennsylvania voters are unsure or ambivalent about the situation. Their comments included:

“I served three tours over there. It’s an absolute mess over in Iraq, well, in that whole area. And it’s just, no matter what you do, it’s a mess.”

“I agree that they definitely had to go and use full force to protect themselves and their families. I think what happened was wrong. I guess, as human beings, we retaliate. I guess I just don’t like it either way.”

Three of the voters don’t support Israel’s response. Here’s some of what they said:

“I think there’s pretty clear rules of engagement of what you can and cannot do in civilian populations and in densely populated cities. I don’t think destroying civilian infrastructure, carpet bombing cities, and inducing famine for two million, mostly women and children, is the way to win a war and to win global support to continue your war.”

“The famine … to continue to tell these people to move to places, and then their war moves to that area, and they’re not safe there, and now there’s no food. That seems way beyond.”