The Swing Voter Project Wisconsin: March 2024

In this Article

• Context for Wisconsin Swing Voters
• The State of the Union Address
• President Biden’s Health
• An Ad from Trump’s Campaign
• An Ad from Biden’s Campaign
• Which Candidate Would Get Their Votes
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Vice President Pick
• Reducing Credit Card Late Fees

In March, the Swing Voter Project caught up with 13 voters in Wisconsin. They discussed the State of Union 2024 address, campaign ads, Joe Biden’s age and health, and a new rule reducing credit card fees. These respondents also revealed who they planned to vote for and if they’d support Aaron Rodgers as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project interviews voters in key battleground states each month to determine how they feel about the presidential candidates and current events. Participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

Context for Wisconsin Swing Voters

Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes. Between 1940 and 1984, the state elected mostly Republican candidates for president. Then, for the presidential elections from 1988 through 2012, the state went Democratic. In 2016, Trump took the state’s electoral votes in a narrow .7 percent victory over Hilary Clinton. However, in 2020, Biden won with 49.5 percent of the votes, compared to 48.8 percent for Trump.

The State of the Union Address

When respondents were asked about President Biden’s State of the Union 2024 address given on March 7, five hadn’t watched any of it. Only one person had watched the entire speech. Seven others caught part of the address:

Here’s some of what those who tuned in had to say:

“I felt like he was yelling at the audience.”

“I felt that he did a good job … It did get distracting with the hecklers that were there.”

“I felt he was confident. He was able to speak for a very long time and hold himself together and talk about many different points and what he’s done.”

“He was on his game and he was energetic. He could respond quickly to the hecklers, so I thought that was all good.”

President Biden’s Health

Out of the 13 Wisconsin swing voters, 10 expressed concerns about President Biden’s age and mental health. They described him as frail and wondered if his mind was as sharp as it needs to be. When those who watched the State of the Union address were asked if Biden’s appearance put these fears to rest, here’s what they said:

“I’m not concerned about him right now, but the presidency is a four-year job.”

“I thought he looked great up there … After his speech, I still have confidence in him.”

“I’m still concerned about his physical ability because he has episodes where he does trip and fall.”

An Ad from Trump’s Campaign

The Wisconsin swing voters were shown presidential campaign ads from both candidates. An ad from a political action committee (PAC) supporting Trump shows Biden tripping and falling and having trouble speaking. Three of the voters said this ad makes a case for not reelecting Biden.

The other respondents criticized the ad:

“I think the ad’s just kind of gross. Like, anybody has slip-ups and whatever else.”

“Well, I’m not saying that it is AI, but it could be AI, some of it anyway. But there’s old guys all over the world running countries that are older than Biden and they seem to be doing OK.”

“It makes me angry at Trump … His behavior, it’s so rude.”

An Ad from Biden’s Campaign

The focus group participants were also shown a commercial from Biden’s campaign. It highlights his achievements and his pledge to restore reproductive rights. In response to this ad, 10 of the voters said it makes a good case for reelecting Biden. Here’s some of what they said:

“It seems like he cares. He’s trying to make an effective message for the things that he’s gotten done and the things that he wants to do.”

“I think it’s a good ad. I mean it just it moves you it. It makes you think about what he did accomplish. He slams Trump a little bit, but not as negatively as the other ad did.”

Which Candidate Would Get Their Votes

In a two-person race between Biden and Trump, eight of the Wisconsin swing voters would choose Biden, while five would choose Trump.

If five candidates were on the ballot, here’s how the votes would be divided:

Joe Biden: 7
Donald Trump: 2
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 2
Jill Stein: 2
Cornel West: 0

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Vice President Pick

Just before the focus groups were held, Kennedy said that his short list for Vice President candidates included Aaron Rodgers, the NFL quarterback who spent 18 seasons playing for the Green Bay Packers. The Wisconsin swing voters were asked if this choice would make them more likely to support Kennedy.

All 13 said a Kennedy-Rodgers ticket would have absolutely no effect on their choice of candidates. One voter even said Rodgers as VP would make them less likely to support Kennedy.

Reducing Credit Card Late Fees

During the State of the Union speech, Biden talked about taking action to reduce credit card late fees. Under a new rule, fees for late payments to credit card companies could not be more than $8. Current fees average around $32.

Eight of the focus group respondents supported this fee reduction. Here’s what they had to say:

“Because it helps to put more money into American people’s hands, to be able to spend it on what they need, rather than taking care of fees.”

“I think that when a credit card late fee is $32, it’s punitive. If it’s $8 then it covers the cost for the credit card company.”

Five of the Wisconsin swing voters did not approve of the fee reduction rule. Their comments included:

“It just seems like we’re taking away the fiscal responsibility of the consumer … You’ve elected to take that credit card. No one forced you to have it, so you should be paying it on time.”

“The issue that I have with [Biden] doing that, he’s regulating business … I see communism in that.”

As the November election gets closer, stay tuned to the Swing Voter Project. Each month will feature a new focus group with voters in crucial battleground states.