The Swing Voter Project, Michigan: February 2023

The Swing Voter Project, an ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, continues in 2023. This initiative gives swing voters—those who voted for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020—the opportunity to share their viewpoints on today’s most pressing political topics.

Each focus group comprises swing voters from one of 10 key battleground states. In February 2023, we put the spotlight on Michigan.

Context for the Michigan Swing Voter Group

This month’s online session was held on Feb. 14, one day after a tragic shooting at Michigan State University took the lives of three students while injuring five others.

Michigan has voted blue in five out of the last six presidential elections. The outlier year was 2016, when Donald Trump took 47.5 percent of the votes against Hillary Clinton’s 47.3 percent. It was the closest election in the state’s history. On the state level in 2023, Michigan is blue across the board, with Democrats filling every political seat in the executive, congressional, and state legislative offices.

The panel this month consisted of 14 swing voters from various Michigan counties: seven registered Democrats, two registered Republicans, and four Independents.

On Media Bias

These respondents get their news from a wide range of sources: from local to national outlets, both traditional (TV and newspaper) and online. When asked if they felt the media in the U.S. was even-handed, not one responded positively.

“There’s an extremism effect. It’s like the people who are left, or the people who are right, they try to be more right or more left to prove that they’re more right or more left than the next guy. So then you just get like a self-perpetuating cycle.”

On Top Issues

What is the top issue in the news these days that concerns you the most?

When asked the above question, it was no surprise that “shootings, violence, and gun control” were the most popular responses in light of the previous day’s tragedy. Other topics of concern included inflation, international conflicts, and crime in general.

On Gun Laws

Compared to other states, Michigan’s gun laws are among the least restrictive in the country. When asked which gun laws in particular they would support, here’s how the swing voters weighed in:

Enact universal background checks: 13/13 in favor
Establish red flag laws: 13/13
Enact safe storage requirements: 13/13
Repeal Michigan’s stand your ground laws: 1/13
Extend a waiting period before buying a firearm to a full week: 5/13
Require a permit for all firearm purchases: 12/13
Impose a ban on assault weapons: 9/13

For the record, only two out of the 13 respondents are currently gun owners.

Michigan’s U.S. Senate Race

Less than half of the group had heard the news that Debbie Stabenow, the Democratic U.S. Senator from Michigan, is retiring at the end of her term next year. And everyone in the group struggled to identify pictures of those vying for her seat.

Right to Work

None of the respondents were able to say what Michigan’s right-to-work law was. When explained that it prevents workers from being fired if they choose not to join a union or pay fees to a union, 7 out of the 13 said they were in favor of this law while the rest were unsure or indifferent.

On Biden

Halfway through his first term as president, we wanted to know what kind of emotions the image of Biden was conjuring up in the minds of our swing voters when they saw him on screen. Their responses weren’t pretty.

Irritated, confused, disappointed, angry, sorry, sad, cringe, and worried were the descriptors put forth by the group. Only one respondent had anything nice to say about our leader, and the word she used was “proud.”

sago

Age is a big factor for the group’s criticism of Biden. When polled, 54 was their average response for ideal president age, with 65 the average response for an age ceiling.

Reelecting Biden

Perhaps the most interesting finding of the entire session came when all 13 swing voters said that President Biden should be challenged for the Democratic nomination next year. But when it came to nominating a challenger, the group drew a blank. Only one respondent could come up with a name: Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey.

When asked to list any of Biden’s achievements as president, or to confirm the achievements that Biden claimed credit for during his State of the Union Address, a few of the swing voters unenthusiastically came up with the following short list: