6 Minutes 
For the third straight year, Sago, in collaboration with Engagious and Axios, conducted a series of twelve focus groups aimed to shed light on the political perceptions and sentiments of swing voters—those who voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020—in our nation’s key battleground states.
During these online sessions, participants delved into the most pressing topics of 2022. They discussed subjects ranging from state-level politics to hot-button issues like crime and abortion, as well as the general American state of democracy, foreign affairs, and more. Reading and watching back through these sessions, you’ll find it illuminating to observe these groups’ varied and shifting concerns—not just from state to state, but as new events unfolded throughout the year.
Some Context for Georgia Voters
Among our 11 participants in this month’s focus group, seven are registered Republicans, two are registered Democrats, and two are Independent. Since 1964, Georgia has leaned red, having given its electoral votes in presidential elections to a Republican candidate all but five times during that span. Still, it is a state where conservative Democrats held most offices at the local level well into the 1990s.
We conducted our virtual session barely 24 hours after the polls closed for the general elections on Nov. 8, with runoffs to be held on Dec. 6 for those races which were not yet decided by a majority vote. We wanted to ask our respondents how they felt about certain candidates and the elections in general.
Swing Voters on the Pandemic
It was impressive how quickly our panel participants were able to move past the COVID pandemic as a dominant force in their lives. At the beginning of the year, COVID was still a significant concern for them given the high number of cases and persistent measures to curb the spread of the virus. By the year’s midpoint, with the numbers and restrictions on the decline, participants seemed to have much less urgency to speak on this subject. And by the end of the year, our leaders’ handling of the pandemic was almost a moot point among our swing voters. Generally, participants had mixed opinions when it came to our leaders’ handling of the pandemic, but without the need to point a finger at anyone in particular.
Swing Voters on Inflation
Opinions were also quick to shift on the topic of inflation. At no point during the year were our swing voters quick to blame political leaders for rising costs. Instead, they pointed at other factors: COVID, supply chain issues, and greed from large corporations. Many did lack initial faith, however, in Biden’s plans to curb inflation. However, by the end of the year many of our swing voters felt that inflation was trending in a positive direction, and they seemed willing to give at least some of the credit to Biden.
Swing Voters on Russia and Ukraine
The number of swing voters who saw Russia as a threat, rather than as an ally or competitor, jumped from 25 to 85 percent between February and March of 2022. Through the summer and fall, this became a less urgent discussion point during our sessions, and we can only speculate as to why: Has the war become normalized from our American viewpoint? Are we too far removed from it without any direct impact on our daily lives? Or has the lack of progress made by either side paralyzed our perception of these events? It will be interesting to check in with future groups on this subject as the conflict continues to evolve or stagnate.
Swing Voters on the January 6th Committee
In July, the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack was formed. The proceedings of this committee certainly captured the attention of our swing voters, and it was not exactly a divisive topic. Most participants from at least one of our groups at that time believed a crime HAD been committed, that Trump WAS the instigator of said crime, and that a former president is NOT above the law.
Swing Voters on Biden vs. Trump
We asked our participants, both before and after the January 6 hearings, how they would vote in a hypothetical future race between the incumbent President Biden and the former President Trump. While participants did not express high satisfaction with Biden overall, virtually none of them were willing to give Trump another chance in office. And this negative sentiment toward Trump would only grow throughout the course of the year, even impacting the way they viewed local political candidates.
Swing Voters on State Elections
As the state elections got underway throughout the summer and into the fall, local elections and their candidates were a hot discussion point during our sessions. The big question is: did our swing voters lean red or blue in these state senate and governor races? Or were they willing to mix it up with a split-ticket vote? Overall, participants seemed willing to give any candidate a fair look, regardless of party affiliation. And, yes, there were even some split-ticket voters between the senate and governor races.
While we don’t have official numbers to report as far as how our panelists voted in the end, they did show signs of overall favor toward Democratic candidates. Two big factors to consider with this: even our red-leaning swing voters did not take kindly to certain Republican candidates’ affiliation with Trump, or to their all-or-nothing stance on abortion.
Understanding the Swing Voter Demographic in Retrospect
It’s a tough task to generalize any voter demographic, especially during politically turbulent times such as these. This might be especially true for swing voters, whose willingness to step across party lines shapes their viewpoints in varied and unexpected ways. While their opinions on any particular topic may have been rife with nuance, their shared hope and vision for America was clear-cut: they simply want their leaders to pave the way for peace, prosperity, and, of course, justice for all.
Stay tuned for the 2023 edition of the Swing Voter Project. What events in America and the world will fuel our panel discussions this year?
