5 Minutes 
The Swing Voter Project, an ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, checked in with Arizona voters for its latest round of focus groups. In these online sessions, swing voters – those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 – share their thoughts on key political topics concerning their country and state.
Context for the Arizona Swing Voter Group
Historically, Arizona voters have chosen Republican candidates in presidential elections. In fact, Republicans carried the state in every presidential race from 1952 through 2016, except for 1996, when Bill Clinton took Arizona’s electoral votes.
After Trump won in Arizona by a narrower margin than expected in 2016, the state was considered a critical battleground state in 2020. Biden won in Arizona in 2020, with .3 percent margin, which was around 10,000 votes.
In November 2023, we asked 11 swing voters in the state about Biden’s time in office, the 2024 presidential race and the Israel-Hamas War.
On Presidential Health
When asked if President Biden seemed to be showing signs of senility, three of the 11 participants said yes. They expressed concern for his health.
“He looks like he is stumbling a lot, so there’s a balance issue.”
“He makes me feel the country is frail.”
Voting in the 2024 Election
If the candidates in the 2024 race for presidency are Biden and Trump, eight of the respondents would choose Biden. Three of them would select Trump. But Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is in the race, and three of the Biden voters would vote for him. All three Trump votes would choose RFK Jr. instead.
“I don’t have faith in Trump and I’m losing faith in Biden. I think a fresh new face in the White House might be what the country needs.”
On Biden’s Campaign Ad
Focus group participants were shown a 60-second TV spot from the Biden campaign with the message “America is back.” This message did not resonate with them.
“I wanted to laugh in the middle of it. America’s back, better than ever? Our deficit is so large, it’s mind-boggling. Inflation’s high. Unemployment – you can spin that rate however you want, but people are getting laid off left and right.”
“We’re not back. We’ve entered onto a good path, but there’s still a lot more to do.”
On Biden’s Challenger
The focus group members were shown an uncaptioned photo of Dean Phillips, the U.S representative from Minnesota, challenging Biden for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination. None of them could identify him. Still, six of the 11 focus group participants thought it was good that there was someone to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination.
After seeing one of his campaign ads that’s been shown in New Hampshire, here’s what they thought:
“His message was just really cheesy. I just didn’t take what he said seriously.”
“He reminded me a little bit of Biden and his friendliness and folksiness.”
“It was very casual, and I have higher expectations than a casual president of the United States.”
On Biden and His Response to The Israel-Hamas War
The respondents were asked about the Israel-Hamas War and how it relates to President Biden. None of them went so far as to say that they disapproved of Biden’s response to the conflict. And no one believes that Trump would do a better job responding to the crisis in Gaza than Biden has.
However, only three approved of how Biden has been managing the situation.
“I think that Biden, by sending in an appropriate show of military force with the two carrier groups, is inhibiting the other state actors, such as Iran, from, entering into the fray. It’s a measured approach to try to prevent the spreading of the conflict, not getting the U.S. directly involved, but showing support for our ally out there.”
“I think we have to support our partners. Obviously, if they need the help, it needs to be reciprocated. They need to give us something in return, but I think that we need to support our allies.”
“I’m not ready to say approve or disapprove yet. I think he’s taking a cautious approach. That’s what I approve of, his cautiousness.”
The Top Issue
In October, four days after the Israel-Hamas War began, the Swing Voter Project asked 11 voters in Georgia about the conflict. None of them were worried about the war escalating into World War Three. Just one month later, during the Arizona focus group, 10 of the 11 respondents were concerned about World War Three.
“I just feel that this could expand if it’s not controlled.”
“The weaponry has gotten to the point where it very easily could become global if certain spots in the region are hit.”
