The Swing Voter Project, North Carolina: December 2023

Key Takeaways:

When asked about the consequences of Trump’s conviction before the 2024 election, most participants in the focus group believed that it would be good for America. However, there were mixed opinions about whether such a conviction could trigger a second U.S. Civil War.
Participants mentioned that Hunter Biden’s actions do not directly impact their voting decisions.
While most Trump-to-Biden voters in the focus group would choose Biden in a two-person race against Trump, if Nikki Haley runs against Biden in 2024, six members would vote for her.

Swing Voter Project: November 2023 Recap

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North Carolina’s Shifting Political Ideologies

Historically, North Carolina predominantly voted for Democratic candidates for president after the Civil War. However, starting in 1968, the state began leaning towards Republican candidates, with exceptions like Jimmy Carter’s victory in 1976. Notably, North Carolina supported Barack Obama in 2008 but voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, gaining an extra electoral vote after the 2020 census.

Fear of Being a Trump Trial Juror

In the focus group, the majority of North Carolina voters expressed fear about serving as a juror in a case involving former President Trump. They believed that Trump would potentially tamper with the jury, and many expected him to use social media to intimidate jurors who voted to convict him. Despite these concerns, all focus group participants believed it is still possible for Trump to receive a fair trial.

Notable quotes from voters:

“He knows a lot of high-profile people. Who knows who he could hire to kind of keep an eye out on you?”

“I would be concerned and wary and in danger of threats or death threats.”

Consequences of a Conviction in Trump Trial

In response to whether a conviction of Trump before the 2024 election would be good for America, a majority of the participants in one focus group answered in the affirmative. However, opinions varied on whether a conviction would trigger a second U.S. Civil War. Some participants expressed concerns about potential protests and violence, while others believed that such extreme consequences were unlikely.

Notable quotes from voters:

“It’s probably going to set off something, but it’s not going to be a second Civil War.”

“We’ve seen January 6 and what happened to the Capitol Building … maybe similar types of things. Hopefully there would be preparation for it, to mitigate that, but there would be some backlash and some protesting and even violence.”

Perspective on Hunter Biden’s Taxes

While most focus group participants (10 out of 11) had heard about Hunter Biden’s indictment on tax-related charges, most were not particularly concerned about the case. They felt that Hunter Biden’s legal issues were not impactful since he did not hold any significant office, and their focus was primarily on the actions of the president.

Notable quotes from voters:

“He’s not the president. I’m not voting for him.”

“It doesn’t really concern me too much because, you know, he’s the president’s son, but he doesn’t really hold any office that matters.”

Ten of the 11 focus group members don’t support an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. When asked if they would describe Biden as corrupt, everyone said no.

Trump vs. Biden vs. Haley in 2024

When asked about their preferences in a hypothetical matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election, 10 of the 11 North Carolina swing voters in the focus group would choose Biden. These participants were identified as Trump-to-Biden voters who maintained their support for Biden. However, when asked about a matchup between Biden and Nikki Haley, six participants would vote for Haley due to her perceived moderate stances and ability to reach across the aisle.

Notable quotes from voters on Nikki Haley:

“I’ve been a long admirer of hers. I think that she represents a more moderate option on the Republican side and that her energy and grasp of domestic and international issues is superior.”

“I think she seems to be the Republican potential nominee that might reach across the aisle more.”

“I just think she’s well-spoken… and she’s good in the debates.”

Support for Third-Party Candidates

When the discussion expanded to include potential third-party candidates, the focus group participants showed a particular interest in Liz Cheney. They appreciated her authenticity, fearlessness, and dedication to serving the people rather than party interests.