The Swing Voter Project, Michigan - February 2024

Key Takeaways

Michigan voters have concerns about Joe Biden’s mental and physical well-being.
At least half of those surveyed would support Trump in the 2024 elections, even if he is convicted of a felony in one or more of the cases against him.
Respondents disagree with what experts say about the strength of the U.S. economy and see the effects of inflation on their everyday lives.

Catch up on what Nevada swing voters think about Biden and Trump’s management of the border crisis.

Check out the January 2024 recap

In February 2024, the Swing Voter Project checked in with 14 voters in Michigan. The participants talked about everything from Joe Biden’s health to which presidential candidate they’d trust as a babysitter. They also shared which candidates have their votes and if they’d support Trump, even if he’s convicted of a felony.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project spotlights the views of voters in key battleground states during focus groups each month. Participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

Context for the Michigan Swing Voter Group

After becoming a state in 1837, Michigan voted for Republican candidates in most presidential elections until the 1930s. Then, voters alternated between Republicans and Democrats for the next 40 years or so. However, they chose only Republicans for president from 1972 to 1988.

Starting in 1992, Democratic candidates carried the state until Donald Trump won against Hilary Clinton in 2016, with a .2 percent margin. In 2020, voters in Michigan chose Joe Biden by 2.8 percent. Due to population loss, this swing state only has 15 electoral votes for the 2024 election.

Joe Biden’s Health

During the February focus groups, the 14 Michigan swing voters had negative views of Biden. However, none of them believe he is a threat to American democracy, while seven of them think Trump is.

Biden’s health is a top concern, with eight respondents agreeing that the current president looks “frail.” When the president speaks, he does not make a good impression, they said:

“He goes totally off topic of what the topic he was talking about.”

“He hesitates and then he repeats himself over and over.”

“Seems like he’s at a loss for words or he forgets what he’s actually speaking about and gets things confused.”

Which Candidate Would Make a Better Babysitter?

During the discussion, focus group participants were asked to imagine they needed to find childcare for their 5-year-old niece. If only Biden and Trump were available to watch the child, which one would they prefer?

Only five would choose Biden. The other nine voters would ask Trump to babysit. Here’s what they had to say:

“I think he’d be a little more aware of what’s going on in the house, cognitively.”

“Well, at least I know [Trump] would know what to do with her if she fell down or got hurt. He’d be able to point her in the right direction if she needed to call 911 or something.”

“Biden, I mean he can hardly stand up on his own. I can’t imagine him chasing a 5-year-old around.”

Voting for Biden or Trump

In an election between Biden and Trump, 10 of the Michigan swing voters would choose Trump. Of those 10, seven will still vote for Trump even if he is convicted of a felony before the November election. Here are some perspectives from those voters:

“There’s something going on. They’re afraid of him being in office and the economy was doing great.”

“I’ve lost complete faith in the judicial system. I think it’s a witch hunt.”

“It would depend on what he’s being convicted of.”

“If it’s politically motivated felony, like ‘Oooh he hid some papers,’ yeah, I don’t care. That’s not something so egregious [it] would make me not vote for somebody. That’s just petty.”

When asked to consider six potential presidential candidates, five of the Michigan swing voters would choose Robert Kennedy Jr. The vote breakdown looks like this:

Robert Kennedy Jr.: 5
Donald Trump: 5
Joe Biden: 3
Liz Cheney: 1
Jill Stein: 0
Cornel West: 0

Michigan Swing Voters’ Views on the U.S. Economy

The Michigan swing voters don’t have a positive view of the state of the U.S. economy. Eleven of the 14 say the U.S economy is in lousy shape. Eight of them report being worse off than four years ago. Over the past few months, only five respondents say their income has kept up with their expenses.

Still, experts report that America’s economy is robust, with unemployment at historic lows and the stock market at historic highs. These experts also see inflation beginning to recede. When the Michigan swing voters were asked what they see that the experts don’t, here were some of their answers:

“We are only a couple steps away from completely going into a deep recession, which even could possibly turn into a depression.”

“The employment numbers [aren’t] actually the truth. It’s only new cases that have been filed, not all the people that have run out of unemployment and have been sitting there for four years. So, I think there’s still millions of people not working.”

“I think they’re out of touch with the average middle-class person … Every day when I look at the news, I’m seeing people that are educated and losing their jobs through no fault of their own.”

“Don’t tell me that inflation is receding, when I still go to the grocery store and I’m spending over $200 and I bring home three bags of groceries that don’t last me the week.”

Follow along as the Swing Voters Project checks in monthly with voters in key battleground states across the country.