The Swing Voter Project in Nevada – January 2024

​In this Article

• Context for the Nevada Swing Voter Group
• The State of the American Economy
• The Border Crisis
• Are Biden’s Views of Trump as a Threat to Democracy Exaggerated?
• Voters Weigh in on Trump’s Eligibility for State’s Ballot

During focus groups in January 2024, the Swing Voter Project talked to 12 voters in Nevada about their views on the state of the U.S. economy, the country’s southern border, and a campaign speech by Joe Biden.

The project is an ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious. It features monthly focus groups held in key battleground states. Participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Context for the Nevada Swing Voter Group

Nevada, a state that achieved statehood in 1864, has experienced remarkable population growth over the past four decades. In line with this expansion, the state has doubled its electoral votes from three in 1980 to six today. While Nevada predominantly favored Republican candidates in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, it is now recognized as a crucial battleground state. In the 2016 and 2020 elections, Nevada’s voters demonstrated their preference for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump and Joe Biden over Trump, respectively.

The State of the American Economy

Despite recent stock market highs, low employment, and a lower inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, Nevada swing voters don’t have positive views of the economy. During the January focus groups, those surveyed agreed that the U.S. economy is in “lousy shape.”

Here’s some of what they had to say:

“Prices are going up on everything, practically. Not just food, but healthcare is in the tank for a lot of people.”

“Everything is so expensive, and families are barely, you know, surviving … So many people I know, they’re suffering, and they feel like they’re never going to get out of it.”

“Rentals have gone up. Senior housing has gone up.”

Out of the 12 members in the focus group, there are varying views on their economic well-being over the past four years. Interestingly, two members stated that they are currently in a better economic position compared to four years ago. On the other hand, four members expressed feeling worse off. The remaining swing voters from Nevada perceive their economic situations as unchanged.

Participants were divided in their assessment of the economy based on the presidential administrations. Five individuals believed that the economy thrived during Trump’s time in office, while two members expressed that the years under Biden have been more favorable. Additionally, four participants voiced their dissatisfaction with the economy, referring to it as poor during both administrations.

The Border Crisis

In recent months, the influx of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexican border has reached unprecedented levels. Of the Nevada swing voters surveyed, eight individuals expressed concerns about the situation at the border. Interestingly, none of them stated that the crisis directly impacts their day-to-day lives. However, two participants voiced apprehension for the safety and well-being of individuals they know residing in proximity to the border.

During the survey, participants were asked to provide a word or phrase to describe how the last two presidents have handled the border crisis. For Biden, the responses included:

“I would say incomplete and something more has to happen.”

“He’s not doing anything at all.”

“The word that comes to mind is weak.”

“For me, impossible.”

Descriptions of Trump’s border policies included comments such as:

“Yeah, I’d say very authoritarian. He just wanted to build the wall.”

“I’d say brutal. He put kids in cages separating them from their parents. That was rough.”

“Consistent.”

“Accomplished.”

“Inhumane.”

“Tough.”

Are Biden’s Views of Trump as a “Threat to Democracy” Exaggerated?

The focus group participants were presented with three excerpts from President Biden’s campaign speech delivered in Valley Forge, Penn. on Jan. 5. One particular statement made by Biden during his speech was regarding the perceived threat to democracy posed by Trump. To gauge their perspectives, the Nevada swing voters were asked if they believed Biden’s claim was an exaggeration. Interestingly, eight respondents disagreed with the notion of exaggeration

“Trump does pose a threat to democracy. [On] January 6, he did not act when the insurrection was happening. He didn’t say anything. It took him hours to respond to it.”

“Yes, the quotes that Biden attribute to him about Hitler, he’s on tape, it’s on the news.”

Only three said Biden was exaggerating. Comments about Biden included:

“It seems like he’s just constantly attacking, attacking instead of like being positive and saying what he’s going to do or how he’s going to handle it.”

“He’s exaggerating it because that’s what competitors do with one another, but it’s empty exaggeration, as far as I’m concerned.”

Voters Weigh in on Trump’s Eligibility for State’s Ballot

Nine of the focus group participants had heard the news about Donald Trump’s disqualification from the election ballot in Colorado due to the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. The text of the relevant section of the 14th Amendment was read to the Nevada swing voters, and they were then asked to consider the Constitution and if Trump should be on the Nevada ballot in November. Five said Trump should be kept off their state’s ballot.

“He led an insurrection and it says right there plain and clear in the text, no person that has held office or taken the oath that has a building of insurrection should be allowed to run.”

Seven believed that Trump should still be on the ballot.

“…They have not convicted him yet. They should have started these proceedings right after it happened. They waited too, too long … If people don’t want him, they should be allowed to vote they don’t want him. Let the people decide.”

For more about what swing voters think about presidential candidates and issues leading up to the 2024 election, check out the Engagious channel on YouTube.