The Swing Voter Project, November 2024: Post-Election

Key Takeaways

Swing voters discussed their top hopes and concerns about Trump’s return to office.
The participants identified which election pledges they expect Trump to follow through on and expressed why they don’t support far-reaching new tariffs.
They also shared their opinions about top Trump advisors Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

After the 2024 presidential election in November, The Swing Voter Project spoke to 14 voters from seven swing states. They talked about their hopes and concerns about Donald Trump’s second presidency. The voters also shared their opinions about two of Trump’s top advisors, Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project talked to voters in key battleground states each month in 2024. Conversations topics included the presidential candidates and issues that might influence their votes. The focus group participants voted for Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Who Voters Chose at the Polls in 2024

In 2024, here’s how the 14 respondents voted:
Donald Trump: 5
Kamala Harris: 5
Chase Oliver: 3
Jill Stein: 1

What Voters Look Forward to During Trump’s Second Term

Five people voted for Trump, and all were pleased with his victory. Only two of the other nine voters said they were upset about his win.

When the focus group respondents were asked about what they are hopeful about in Trump’s second term, their comments included:

“Definitely the economy. My stocks were doing a lot better, with my retirement, when he was in in office, so I’m looking forward to that hopefully returning.”

“I’m hopeful that he will bring the economy back to the levels that we enjoyed before the pandemic and before Bidenomics.”

“I’m hoping that he might actually be able to possibly unite us a little more by bringing everything sort of back to center and providing a balance.”

“To be quite honest, I’m not really hopeful about anything right now. I’m just waiting to see where everything goes.”

“I’m not hopeful for anything at all for the next four years, except for things I can’t ever say out loud.”

“For me, it would be the economy. I’m hoping that the stock market continues to rise and that personal income taxes continue to come down.”

“I was reading that there would be no tax on overtime. I like the satisfaction knowing that if I get an extra amount of overtime, I’ll have all that money in my pocket, which will really help out my son and I.”

“More money in my pocket. Whenever we have a liberal in government, we tend to lose so much money … I work really hard for my money and to see it just dissipate is unnerving.”

“I’m just relieved. I guess I was worried that if Trump lost, there would be another January 6 or some sort of mini Civil War. So, I’m grateful that there’s a little bit of stability.”

“Safety. A lot of people coming over, we don’t know who they are, criminals. Also, I’d like to um have more money in my pocket.”

“Definitely the economy. My stocks were doing a lot better, with my retirement, when he was in in office, so I’m looking forward to that hopefully returning.”

What Worries Voters About Trump’s Win

The 14 swing voters also have concerns about Trump’s return to the White House. Here’s some of what they said:

“I am concerned about him having unchecked power.”

“I’m still most worried about the rhetoric. I’m afraid that our country is going to continue the divisiveness between the two parties and that he’s just going to stoke that fire.”

“For me, the one thing I’m most concerned about is his immigration policies. A lot of my family are Hispanic.”

“I think just following through or not following through on what he promises.”

“I’m most concerned about the lasting effects he could have on the Supreme Court for the next 40 years.”

“I think he will name himself King Trump the First. The U.S. as we know it will be gone. Within four years, we will be, literally, living in The Handmaid’s Tale.”

“Unchecked power. If the Republicans have control of the House and the Senate and Trump just wants to stack the deck, my worst fear is that he’ll just do away with our complete system. He has said, if I win, then we won’t have any more elections and that terrifies me.”

“Actually. I’m just concerned about him shooting off his mouth and doing something dumb.”

“I’ve been reading that he’s going to do away with the Department of Education for something else. I want to know what that something else is and if our children and the next people coming up are going to be better educated.”

“The blunt tariff policies that I’ve heard about and the immigration policy is really going stump economic growth big time.”

“I have no concerns.”

“Sadly, his life, with the assassinations. I’m hoping that we can have a president for four years. I am concerned of his safety.”

Which Election Pledges Will Become Policy

The focus group participants were shown a list of 11 pledges Trump made during his campaign. They were asked which ones they thought would get done over the next four years. The top three were:

Reducing regulations to produce more energy
Cutting the corporate tax rate
Deporting millions of undocumented people

The voters had less confidence in Trump being able to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits. They also don’t think ending wars overseas is a realistic possibility.

When it comes to imposing across the board tariffs, their comments included:

“I don’t know if our economy could support a change like that.”

“I think even companies that manufacture items here get a lot of their materials or supplies from overseas. That’s ultimately going to really hurt not only the average consumer, but corporations, which is typically what Trump sides with.”

“I don’t think they’ll be able to get it done. It crushes and stymies the economy and corporations and even moderately big businesses do not want that.”

Thoughts on Trump’s Threats of Retribution

During the November 2024 focus groups, the swing voters were told about people that Trump has threatened with retribution. The list included President Biden, Vice President Harris, former President Barack Obama, Liz Cheney, and Mark Zuckerberg. Trump has also threatened federal, state, and local prosecutors who have charged him with crimes or have attempted to.

Eight of the 14 voters think these threats were serious and that Trump will go after these people. The other six think he’s exaggerating and won’t retaliate. Of the 14 voters, 11 believe Trump would not be justified in pursuing acts of retribution.

Comments about Trump’s plans for retribution included:

“It just all sounds like we’re just going to throw our political enemies, because they lose an election, into jail. It’s completely nonsense … It doesn’t follow any of our principles that we’re supposed to have.”

“Military tribunals are specifically for violating law during a war. Please tell me, what law during a war has Liz Cheney or Barack Obama violated? It doesn’t make any sense.”

“I’m not 100% certain, but as far as I personally know, in every aspect of the law, retaliation just to retaliate is like one of the biggest no-no’s across the board.”

Opinions about Trump’s Advisor Elon Musk

Out of the 14 swing voters, 12 knew that Elon Musk has been advising Trump. None of those 12 people think that’s a good thing. Five went so far as to say Trump’s relationship with Musk is a bad thing.

Comments about Musk included:

“I think when you allow lay people access to the president like that, it could lead to having more access than that person should possibly have … He’s very good, obviously, at business, but I didn’t elect him.”

“There’s nothing, in my opinion, in Elon Musk’s history that shows that he’s got the best interest of the country or citizens in mind. He’s a businessman. He wants what’s best for him and his company.”

“It’ll favor his Tesla company. He’ll get the majority of the breaks. By throwing a couple hundred million on [Trump’s] campaign, they’re going to look the other way, whatever he decides to do with his company and how he handles his business.”

Views of Robert Kennedy Jr. and Trump

Eight of the 14 focus group participants knew that Robert Kennedy Jr. had been advising Trump. Of those eight, one believes it’s a good thing. Four think it’s a bad thing. The rest had no opinion either way.

Comments about Kennedy included:

“He is causing people to question things … He can’t do any worse than anybody else has ever done. Actually, he’s asking a lot of really intensely good questions and it’s about time somebody asked some good questions.”

“He has his own political ambitions. He’ll want to think about 2028 or ’32 or just long term … I just question if he’s really going to focus on the health of the American people versus his own political ambitions.”

“I think RFK has a lot of extreme views on things like removing fluoride from the water and a lot of vaccine skepticism, even though it’s shown to reduce a lot of pretty crazy diseases.”

“Even his entire own family said that they weren’t going to vote for him because they think that he’s in serious mental decline. If he really is in serious mental decline, he shouldn’t be advising anybody on anything ever, except for maybe what color socks to wear.”

“I personally think a lot of his policies are rooted in gut feelings and anecdotes and not science.”

Though the 2024 election is over, you can still check out previous monthly installments of the Swing Voter Project to track how voters viewed the candidates and issues throughout the year.