The Swing Voter Project, June 2024: North Carolina

In this Article

• Context for North Carolina Swing Voter Group
• Reactions to Trump’s Talk of Revenge
• Should Trump Serve Time?
• Opposition to Jail Time for Trump
• Opinions on Hunter Biden’s Conviction

In June 2024, the Swing Voter Project checked in with 12 voters in North Carolina. The focus groups were held shortly after the convictions of Donald Trump and Hunter Biden. Reactions to these two verdicts dominated the conversations.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project spotlights the views of voters in key battleground states during focus groups each month. Participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

Context for North Carolina Swing Voter Group

Since the 2020 census results, North Carolina has gained an electoral vote, giving it 16 electoral votes. Over the last 50 years, North Carolina voters have mostly selected Republican candidates for president. However, the state went Democratic for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and for Barack Obama in 2008.

In 2012, North Carolina voters chose Mitt Romney over Obama by a narrow margin. In 2016, they selected Trump over Hilary Clinton by 3.6%. In 2020, the state went for Trump again, over Biden, but only by 1.3%.

Reactions to Trump’s Talk of Revenge

During the June focus groups, the North Carolina voters were read an excerpt from a June 8 article that appeared in The Hill, a publication in Washington, D.C. After Trump’s conviction in the New York court case, he has talked about seeking revenge and pursuing his political enemies during a second presidential term, the article said. All 12 North Carolina voters said they were troubled by this stance. Their comments included:

“It’s just a general disregard for law and order. It just gives you very, hate to pull out the big guns, but Hitleresque vibes.”

“Because Trump is like a spoiled kid, so when he doesn’t get his way, he wreaks havoc. Look at what he did the last time he didn’t win the election.”

“When you propagate this kind of speech, it’s very reminiscent of some speech that took place pre-World War II. Very fascist in origin, very Nationalist and weaponizing.”

“This feels really threatening. I mean, we want the president of the country to pull us together and unite us and here he is, yet again, trying to create divide.”

Should Trump Serve Time?

All 12 North Carolina voters had heard about Trump’s conviction. Only one of them said that Trump’s conviction would affect their vote in November. They said, “I guess prior to that, I was still open to hearing everything from all sides. With this conviction, you know, I’m not so much now with Trump, so to speak.”

Six of the focus group participants thought Trump should have to go to jail. Here’s what they had to say:

“He should face the same consequence that anyone else with those same charges and convictions should face, including jail time.”

“Committed a crime and he should pay the same time that any other American would have to pay in that same situation.”

“This is not new behavior. He does not express remorse in any way and he’s even admitted the opposite — that he doesn’t think he did anything wrong and he’d do it again.”

Opposition to Jail Time for Trump

Half of the participants opposed the idea of putting Trump in jail as part of his sentence for the trial in New York. Their comments included:

“I think that’s going to do nothing but make him a martyr for his cause and help incite even more violence … I think it’s just going to do nothing but make his base more riled up and ready to go.”

“I just think people want him to go to jail now because he’s the president, but if he was a regular rich citizen, the chances of him going to jail would be slim to none.”

“I honestly think that instead of jail time, there should be other punishment for him, one of which, and most important, should be not to run being able to run for public office.”

Opinions on Hunter Biden’s Conviction

The focus groups took place just hours after the felony conviction of Hunter Biden, Biden’s second son. While 10 of the North Carolina voters had heard the news about the verdict, none of them thought Hunter Biden should go to jail.

At least one of the participants thought the prosecution of Hunter Biden seemed to be a response to the charges that have been brought against Trump.

“The Hunter Biden [case] feels purely retaliatory. I don’t think Hunter Biden would have been investigated to the point that they were able to find the felonies that he was guilty of, if they didn’t feel like they were doing it in retaliation for Trump being prosecuted.”

Another respondent didn’t think Hunter Biden’s legal troubles should reflect on President Biden. Here’s what they had to say:

“I don’t really see how the president’s son impacts his presidency. I don’t make a correlation … between Trump’s convictions and the president’s son because substance use is not a choice for a lot of people.

If anything, it really, to me, makes President Biden more human, seeing his reaction, taking accountability for his son and saying that ‘we’ll support him, we’ll love him.’”

As the 2024 presidential campaigns continue, keep up with the latest voter opinions. Each month, the Swing Voter Project checks in with a different battleground state.