Swing Voter Project, October 2024: Pennsylvania

In this Article

• Context for Pennsylvania Swing Voter Group
• Which Candidates Have Their Votes
• An Undecided Voter’s Perspective
• How Harris Makes Voters Feel
• Views of a Female President
• Perspectives on Liz Cheney’s Endorsement of Harris
• How Some Voters See the Assassination Attempt on Trump
• The State of the Economy
• Other Takeaways from Pennsylvania Swing Voters

On Oct. 8, the Swing Voter Project spoke to 12 voters in Pennsylvania. They discussed which candidate they plan to vote for and their feelings about Kamala Harris. The voters also shared some surprising views about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Butler, PA., in July.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project talks to voters in key battleground states each month. Topics include the candidates for president and current events and issues that might affect their votes. The focus group participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Context for Pennsylvania Swing Voter Group

In 1787, the United States Constitution was written in Philadelphia. The same year, Pennsylvania became the second state. Pennsylvania residents have cast their votes in every U.S. presidential election.

Over the last century, however, the state has lost electoral votes as its population has declined. In 2024, this crucial battleground state has 19 electoral votes. In 2020, state residents chose Biden over Trump by 1.2%. In 2016, Pennsylvania’s electoral votes went to Trump by only 0.7%.

Which Candidates Have Their Votes

Six of the 12 Pennsylvania swing voters plan to vote for Kamala Harris. Two are firmly committed to voting for Donald Trump.

The other four voters are leaning toward casting votes for Harris but are open to changing their minds to vote for Trump. Two of these four say their support for Harris is 60/40. They want to see how both candidates handle events in the last few weeks before the election before they make a final decision.

The third undecided respondent is a split-ticket voter. They plan to choose whichever presidential candidate comes from the party that is unlikely to win a Senate majority next year. On the day of the focus groups, this voter anticipated a GOP Senate majority and said they would vote for Harris as a counterbalance.

An Undecided Voter’s Perspective

The fourth undecided voter was still equally divided on whether to support Harris or Trump. Here’s what they said about being undecided this late in the race:

This voter has an intense dislike for both candidates. Here’s what they had to say about Trump:

“I’m afraid he would go back and retaliate against people who he perceived slighted him in any way, go after Stormy Daniels, go after all these people that he threw under a bus, and just spawn hatred and negativity against different populations.”

Here’s what they said about Harris:

“With Harris, the social issues, a lot of them I don’t agree with because of my religious beliefs. I feel like [it’s] going to be sliding into socialism because of what’s going on with Medicare and liberal policies. I am very concerned.”

How Harris Makes Voters Feel

Since Harris announced her candidacy, voters have been asked to describe their emotions when they see her onscreen. Here’s what the Pennsylvania swing voters had to say about Harris:

“I feel pity.”
“I’m mixed about this. I feel uneasy.”
“A little uncertain.”
“Concerned.”
“Cautiously optimistic for the future.”
“Very cautiously optimistic.”
“I feel uncertain when I see her.”
“Confusion”
“I feel laughter.”
“Hopeful.”
“Relieved.”
“Mixed emotions. On one hand, excited and, on the other hand, I’m unsure.”

Voters Views of a Female President

During the presidential race, there has been speculation that Harris faces a particularly challenging path to becoming president because she’s a woman. These voters were asked if some people are concerned about having a female president and if those concerns would affect how people vote. Six of them said yes.

Here’s what they said about people’s reasons for those concerns:

“Just pure chauvinism … There are some men who don’t care what Trump says, like he could walk across the stage butt naked tomorrow and they will still vote for him because they don’t want a woman to be in office.”

“I think there’s a lot of the classic stereotypical arguments, like women are too emotional and they’re not forceful enough, so, then, they’re not going to be as effective in foreign policy, particularly with regards to countries that are a little bit more traditional or conservative and don’t allow women in any roles of power.”

“For those people that don’t believe that now’s the right time for a female president, I think a lot of those folks are concerned of the ability to deal with China, Russia and the extremists in the Middle East.”

“Because we’ve never had a female president. So, while, yes, she’s been the vice president, she doesn’t have quite the presence that a president has. I don’t think the American people have seen a female in that position before, to be able to get a good feel for it, but somebody has to break the ice and go for it.”

Perspectives on Liz Cheney’s Endorsement of Harris

When the two Trump supporters and the four undecided Pennsylvania swing voters were shown a clip of Liz Cheney’s endorsement of Harris, only one person responded favorably to it. The others made comments that included:

“These are people who look out for themselves. They turn on each other at the drop of a hat. You know they were talking smack about Kamala whenever ago and now, all of a sudden, they’re for her. It’s just nonsense.”

“If Liz Cheney was to endorse Harris, I would think she’d have a lot more control over Harris. I think she’d be her Secretary of Defense or something and I probably would be running to vote for Trump at that point.”

“I just find it hard to believe that somebody would go from being a Republican like that to wanting to work for the Democrats or blatantly endorsing a Democrat, so it doesn’t affect me in any way.”

How Some Voters See the Assassination Attempt on Trump

In July, during a rally in Butler, Pa., a gunman attempted to assassinate Trump. The October focus groups took place a few days after Trump returned to Butler for a campaign rally.

When asked about the July incident, five of the Pennsylvania swing voters think that the assassination attempt may have been staged. Here’s what two of them had to say:

“I don’t believe any of it was real, you know, I don’t. And I’m not a conspiracy theory person and I’ve been a Republican for over 40 years. I think the whole thing was staged and I don’t care that he went back.”

“I think that no matter how well or poorly financially supported the Secret Service is by our government, there’s no way that they miss an adolescent teenager climbing on a roof with an assault weapon and allow him to fire off a few rounds at a presidential candidate in a small area that they would have had locked down easily.”

The State of the Economy

The Pennsylvania swing voters are concerned about the country’s economy. Seven of them said the U.S. economy is in lousy shape. Eight said their wages have not kept up with their expenses in the past few months. Only three of these 12 voters believe that the economy is improving.

Other Takeaways from Pennsylvania Swing Voters

• Three of these Pennsylvania swing voters said that fracking is a major issue for them during this election.
• Nine watched some or all of the vice-presidential debate. None of them changed their plans to vote based on what they saw in the debate.
• If these voters had to place a $50 bet on the outcome of the 2024 election, eight would put their money on Harris. Four of these voters would bet on Trump.

Though the 2024 election is just weeks away, you still have time to catch up on previous editions of the Swing Voter Project. And stay tuned for a final check-in with swing voters after the election on Nov. 5.