The Swing Voter Project, July 2024: Florida

Key Takeaways

Before Biden stepped down, Florida voters had strong opinions on the issue, with most calling for the president to withdraw from the 2024 election.
The focus group participants revealed who they would vote in a multi-candidate race.
The voters also talked about why they would support Vice President Kamala Harris and if they think she’s ready to become president.

In July, the Swing Voter Project checked in with 13 voters in Florida. The conversation centered on the topic of whether Joe Biden should resign from the 2024 presidential race. The July focus groups were conducted before the attempted assassination of former President Trump and the announcement of President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race.

An ongoing collaboration between Sago and Engagious, the Swing Voter Project interviews residents of key battleground states each month. The voters share how they feel about the presidential candidates and current events. Participants voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

Context for Florida Swing Voters

As Florida’s population continues to increase, the state received one more electoral vote after the 2020 Census, bringing its total to 30. Only two states have more electoral votes than Florida: California has 54 electoral votes, and Texas has 40. While Trump won Florida’s electoral votes in 2016 and 2020, the state’s electoral votes went to Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008.

Opinions on Biden as a Presidential Candidate

Though the focus groups with the Florida swing voters occurred before Biden stepped down as a presidential candidate, they still had strong opinions about whether he was fit to run for office. Eight of the 13 participants said Biden should withdraw from the race.

Five of the people who felt this way are Democrats, three are Republicans and five are independents. Here’s what they had to say:

“Because I think he should just accept that he’s not the person that he was 20 years ago and that he is experiencing illness and it’s of no fault of his own … He should just be honest in the fact that he is not the best person to serve and that he wants the best for United States and step aside.”

“He’s left us very vulnerable in the eyes of other countries and I just think he just needs to voluntarily step down. He can watch himself and see that.”

“My personal opinion is that there are enough people who don’t want to vote for Trump, but when they see Biden’s condition, they feel like they can’t vote for him and, so, they’re going to vote for Trump.”

“He just looks really, really frail. I didn’t watch the debate, but I saw a reel of his wife helping him down after the debate and Trump just walked off on his own, so that’s kind of discouraging, that the man can barely walk by himself.”

“I think it would be smart to try to yield to someone younger, maybe with more energy and maybe a greater capacity to lead our country for the next four years.”

Voters Who Didn’t Think Biden Should Step Down

Five of the 13 Florida voters thought that Biden should continue to represent the Democratic Party in the election. Their comments included the following:

“It’s a little late in the game or a new candidate to come in for the Democratic people to concentrate [on] and learn about. I don’t know, I feel like that might hurt the Democratic party more than help it.”

“I’m not against someone taking Biden’s place, but I am against Trump winning, so I don’t feel like there’d be enough time to get a new candidate in that would stand a chance at beating Trump.”

One participant said they would like to know who would replace Biden before they would be in favor of his withdrawal.

“I have to see who they’re considering. First, I want someone young, I definitely want someone younger, but who is that? I would want to know who that person is before I say someone else should be there.”

Which Candidates Would Get Their Votes

On July 10 the Florida swing voters were asked who they would support in a multi-candidate race. The sample ballot included Robert Kennedy Jr. and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver.

Here’s how they would vote:

Joe Biden: 6
Donald Trump: 2
Robert Kennedy Jr.: 1
Jill Stein: 1
Cornel West: 0
Chase Oliver: 3

The Florida voters were then asked who they would vote for if Kamala Harris was the Democratic candidate instead of Biden. In that case, their votes would be divided as follows:

Kamala Harris: 9
Donald Trump: 2
Robert Kennedy Jr.: 0
Jill Stein: 1
Cornel West: 0
Chase Oliver: 1

Why Voters Would Choose Kamala Harris

The participants were asked why they would support Kamala Harris and not Biden. Here’s what they said:

“That’s an easy one. That’s an opportunity to be on the side of history right there, first African-American female to actually win the presidency.”

“She’s already doing the job, so she’s just basically, in my eyes, getting a promotion.”

“I went with Harris this time over Oliver, because I feel like voting for Oliver would be a wasted vote. I could vote for a Libertarian, but I don’t think that it would make a difference and I wouldn’t want to waste a vote against Trump.”

“That’s an easy one. That’s an opportunity to be on the side of history right there, first African-American female to actually win the presidency.”

Is Kamala Harris Ready to Be President?

Several of the respondents didn’t think Harris is prepared to be president, but still said they would vote for her. Their comments included:

“I think she would have good people around her.”

“I just haven’t seen her around as much in the four years of being vice president, but, I mean, it can’t be worse than the other option.”

Should Biden Finish His Term?

Eight of the participants in the focus groups think the White House could be hiding something about Biden’s true medical condition. However, they reject Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal to remove Biden from office before his term ends. Their comments included:

“Allow him to finish the term. I don’t feel that he’s in that dire straits, that he can’t make it until the election.”

“He’s not incapacitated, he’s just old and getting slow. He’s not in a coma, so I think that’s a little extreme.”

“Also, I think that’s a bad precedent. I don’t really think that’s something that’s necessary at this particular point in time.”

Stay tuned to the Swing Voters Project to find out what voters think about all the twists and turns of the 2024 presidential election. Don’t miss a single installment of this monthly series.