8 Minutes 
Key Takeaways
- Approval with caveats: 12 of 13 Michigan swing voters approve of Trump’s overall performance, even as many worry he’s overstepping his power.
- Immigration and crime divide: While some see Trump’s crackdowns as necessary, others view ICE raids and National Guard deployments as excessive overreach.
- Skepticism beyond politics: From Gavin Newsom’s failed trolling to mistrust of vaccines and concerns about RFK Jr., voters remain wary of political theatrics.
In September, the Swing Voter Project met with voters from Michigan. The conversation covered Trump’s use of executive power, his handling of immigration and crime, and whether sending the National Guard into cities goes too far. Voters also weighed in on Gavin Newsom’s online trolling of Trump, RFK Jr.’s performance as HHS Secretary, and their own skepticism about vaccines. Despite plenty of reservations, most Michigan swing voters still say they approve of the job Trump is doing.
The Swing Voter Project is a collaboration between Sago, Engagious, and Axios. Each month, we gather insights from voters in battleground states who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024.
Is Trump Using Too Much Power?
Most Michigan swing voters believe President Trump is exercising more power than his immediate predecessors, and many are concerned about his executive actions on immigration and crime.
Despite these reservations, 12 of 13 approve of his performance overall since returning to office.
“He’s disregarded the separation of branches — saying judicial rulings don’t count.”
“The tariffs on Canada and China are new highs. And immigration rules — you can stop anybody, anytime. That’s new.”
“It seems he has a laundry list of executive orders and laws. That Big Beautiful Bill was just one example.”
“I feel like I hear about it all so much more than with past presidents — maybe because of social media.”
Immigration Actions: Too Far or Just Right?
Eight of the 13 respondents said Trump’s actions on immigration have gone too far.
“ICE going into schools and taking kids out — it feels like a bad movie.”
“Now ICE can stop anybody they want to, no questions asked.”
“Racial profiling — I know people followed just for leaving a Hispanic gas station.”
“People live in fear from all these deportations.”
The other five said he’s gotten immigration policy “about right.”
National Guard in Washington, DC — Overstepping?
A plurality (6 of 13) disapprove of Trump sending National Guard troops to Washington, DC, to fight crime. Three approve, while four don’t know enough.
“It feels more like political theater than real security.”
“It’s overstepping — he should give states more resources instead.”
“He’s targeting Democratic cities to take control from them. That’s scary.”
“Unless a governor or mayor asks for help, the feds should stay out.”
Only one would send Guardsmen to Detroit, and only two to Chicago.
“We already have militarized police — we don’t need the actual military.”
“Feels like clearing out Black communities so developers can buy property.”
“Detroit’s had state takeovers before. They didn’t help.”
Overall Approval Still High
Despite concerns, nearly all respondents approve of Trump’s overall performance since January.
“He’s not afraid to make bold changes.”
“These are the most positive changes we’ve seen in a while.”
“Even if it’s not always right, at least he’s doing something.”
“The economy is on the right path.”
Domestic manufacturing and energy production are priorities again.
What’s Making Voters Happy and Angry
What makes them happy:
“He attempted disclosures — UAP files, Epstein files, JFK files.”
“He’s standing up to China and putting America first.”
“Gas prices are better than under Biden.”
“Immigration feels more under control.”
“He’s given many clemencies.”
What upsets them:
“Executive orders on gender issues.”
“Rolling out the red carpet for Putin.”
“Blanket deportations, with no nuance.”
“Failure to acknowledge the Central Park Five case.”
“Support for Israel without addressing Palestine.”
“Tariffs raising prices.”
“Pardoning all January 6th offenders after promising case-by-case review.”
Newsom’s Trolling Falls Flat
Eight respondents could identify California Gov. Gavin Newsom from a photo. When shown one of his social posts attacking Trump, 12 of 13 said it was ineffective.
“It’s like imitation Trump — a knockoff brand.”
“Comes off childish, like parody.”
“I’d rather hear about issues, not name-calling.”
“Why play that political game when it only distracts from the real issues?”
By contrast, nearly all preferred Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s more conciliatory approach in working with Trump.
RFK Jr. and Vaccine Skepticism
Six respondents approve of RFK Jr.’s performance as HHS Secretary, four disapprove, and three don’t know enough.
When asked about a hypothetical new pandemic, eight of 13 said they would NOT take a vaccine developed in under a year.
“I’m young and healthy — I’ll take my chances.”
“I’ve had adverse reactions to vaccines.”
“I prefer natural medicine.”
“We were lied to during COVID. Why trust this?”
Five never took the COVID vaccine in the first place.
Closing
Michigan swing voters continue to support Trump overall, even while many worry about overreach on immigration and crime. They’re skeptical of political trolling from Democrats like Newsom, more trusting of Whitmer’s collaborative style, and deeply wary of vaccines after COVID.
Stay tuned for October’s Swing Voter Project update from another battleground state.
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