One of the things that hasn’t drawn much conversation this month is whether Republicans will maintain their majority in the US Senate. At the start of the year, it looked like Sen. Schumer would be the next majority leader. While that’s still a possibility, it’s looking more like an uphill fight at this point. Josh Kraushaar’s article illustrates why things aren’t turning in the Democrats’ direction.
Kraushaar started talking about how Democrats had recruited “a highly celebrated Senate candidate with enviable favorability ratings back home, Democrats cheered when this former statewide officeholder decided to reenter politics. He left office after the Republican wave election of 2010, and in the ensuing years spent much of his time away from his home state. Even so, he started out ahead of his GOP rival in many early polls. One red flag: He hadn’t won a race in nearly a decade, living more on his past political glory than any recent elective accomplishments.”
It’s true that Sen. Bayh started off with a “$10 million stockpile”, which he’d been sitting on “since he retired.” Once again, sitting on a big financial war chest isn’t the determining factor:
A respected WTHR/Howey poll released Friday showed Bayh with a four-point lead, down from seven points in a Monmouth poll a month ago and a far cry from the double-digit lead he recently held in Democratic surveys. He’s only polling at 44 percent, despite near-universal name identification. If Republicans can keep chipping away at Bayh’s lead with carpetbagger attack lines, it would give them a desperately-needed lifeline in their bid to save their Senate majority.
The fact that Bayh is “only polling at 44%” is rather striking.
Bayh is running in Indiana, which is solidly red in terms of the presidential race. That means, to win, Bayh will have to get lots of Trump voters to split their ticket and vote for him. I don’t see that happening, especially considering the fact that Gov. Mike Pence, (R-IN), is Trump’s running mate. This won’t help Bayh, either:
The Senate Leadership Fund is spending $4 million in ads over the next month to remind voters of Bayh’s checkered record. Despite Bayh’s huge war chest, Republican groups are keeping pace on the airwaves, according to a Democratic source.
A $4,000,000 ad buy against Bayh isn’t just a significant buy. It’s an eye-popping-sized ad buy this close to the election. Bayh’s lead dropped from 7 points to 4 points without the ad buy. As voters tune in and the ad buy kicks in, expect Bayh’s lead to shrink, especially if the ads tout the fact that Bayh voted for Obamacare. It doesn’t help Bayh that he’s campaigned with Hillary:
I’ve been skeptical of the Democrats retaking the majority in the Senate. This article doesn’t give me a reason to rethink my opinion.
Technorati: Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Obamacare, The Establishment, Ticket-Splitting, Democrats, Mike Pence, Donald Trump, Republicans, Election 2016
Authored By Let Freedom Ring Blog