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Will GOP keep US Senate?

One of the things that hasn’t drawn much conversation this month is whether Republicans will maintain their majority in the US Senate. At the start of the year, it looked like Sen. Schumer would be the next majority leader. While that’s still a possibility, it’s looking more like an uphill fight at this point. Josh Kraushaar’s article illustrates why things aren’t turning in the Democrats’ direction.

Kraushaar started talking about how Democrats had recruited “a highly cel­eb­rated Sen­ate can­did­ate with en­vi­able fa­vor­ab­il­ity rat­ings back home, Demo­crats cheered when this former statewide of­fice­hold­er de­cided to reenter polit­ics. He left of­fice after the Re­pub­lic­an wave elec­tion of 2010, and in the en­su­ing years spent much of his time away from his home state. Even so, he star­ted out ahead of his GOP rival in many early polls. One red flag: He hadn’t won a race in nearly a dec­ade, liv­ing more on his past polit­ic­al glory than any re­cent elect­ive ac­com­plish­ments.”

It’s true that Sen. Bayh started off with a “$10 mil­lion stock­pile”, which he’d been sitting on “since he re­tired.” Once again, sitting on a big financial war chest isn’t the determining factor:

A re­spec­ted WTHR/Howey poll re­leased Fri­day showed Bayh with a four-point lead, down from sev­en points in a Mon­mouth poll a month ago and a far cry from the double-di­git lead he re­cently held in Demo­crat­ic sur­veys. He’s only polling at 44 per­cent, des­pite near-uni­ver­sal name iden­ti­fic­a­tion. If Re­pub­lic­ans can keep chip­ping away at Bayh’s lead with car­pet­bag­ger at­tack lines, it would give them a des­per­ately-needed life­line in their bid to save their Sen­ate ma­jor­ity.

The fact that Bayh is “only polling at 44%” is rather striking.

Bayh is running in Indiana, which is solidly red in terms of the presidential race. That means, to win, Bayh will have to get lots of Trump voters to split their ticket and vote for him. I don’t see that happening, especially considering the fact that Gov. Mike Pence, (R-IN), is Trump’s running mate. This won’t help Bayh, either:

The Sen­ate Lead­er­ship Fund is spend­ing $4 mil­lion in ads over the next month to re­mind voters of Bayh’s checkered re­cord. Des­pite Bayh’s huge war chest, Re­pub­lic­an groups are keep­ing pace on the air­waves, ac­cord­ing to a Demo­crat­ic source.

A $4,000,000 ad buy against Bayh isn’t just a significant buy. It’s an eye-popping-sized ad buy this close to the election. Bayh’s lead dropped from 7 points to 4 points without the ad buy. As voters tune in and the ad buy kicks in, expect Bayh’s lead to shrink, especially if the ads tout the fact that Bayh voted for Obamacare. It doesn’t help Bayh that he’s campaigned with Hillary:

I’ve been skeptical of the Democrats retaking the majority in the Senate. This article doesn’t give me a reason to rethink my opinion.

Technorati: Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Obamacare, The Establishment, Ticket-Splitting, Democrats, Mike Pence, Donald Trump, Republicans, Election 2016

Authored By Let Freedom Ring Blog