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The RCP Average Of National Polls Was Not That Far Off

There has been a lot of condemnation of the inaccurate polls in this presidential election, and that is true in the various state polls [that predicted the electoral count].  These state polls seem to always be less accurate than the national polls as the last couple of midterm elections have shown.  In 2014 the polls missed badly the GOP landslide wave that occurred.

But while the battleground state polls were very inaccurate this year, the final results of the popular vote in the 2016 election show that, as usual in presidential elections, the average of the national polls as shown by Real Clear Politics was not that far off.  With most of the vote now in, Real Clear Politics has Hillary Clinton with 48.2% of the vote, Donald Trump with 46.5% and all other candidates with 5.3% of the vote.  


As usual, the RCP average of national polls was not that far off in this 2016 presidential election


While meaningless as far as who the winner was [i.e., the president elect], the national polls “RCP average” of about a 3.2% Hillary Clinton win of the popular vote was pretty close to the actual 1.7% win of the popular vote by Hillary Clinton.  

It is true that some of the individual polls were not close, but a couple were pretty close to the final result.  Here are the best and the worst of the national polls as recorded by Real Clear Politics.



The Top 3 Most Accurate Polls:

1. IBD/Tipp tracking poll had Clinton winning popular vote by 1% [off by only 0.7%]

2. The Bloomberg poll and the 3. Washington Post poll both had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3% [off by 1.3%]

The Most Inaccurate Polls:

1. LA Times/USC Tracking poll predicted a Trump win of the national vote by 3% [off by 4.7%]

2. the Monmouth poll had Clinton winning the popular vote by 6% [off by 4.3%]

3. NBC News and 4. Reuters/Ipsos both had Clinton winning by 5% in the popular vote [off by 3.3%]



Authored By Tales from a tribble